Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, January 2nd(international observation) change breeds change in change.
Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Lina
The world is facing a great change that has never happened in a hundred years.
Global chaos is intertwined, the wind is high and the waves are urgent, and the waves are complicated … … "Will the world be all right?" Doubts constantly challenge global thinkers. From individuals, to institutions, to countries, to the interaction between countries, from material reality to ideas, people feel that all kinds of changes are accelerating in various fields.
International order: exploring in the risk of separatist upheaval
Governance dilemma, security dilemma, identity politics, big country game, military conflict, epidemic disaster, climate change … … All kinds of challenges are superimposed and projected on political relations, the situation is intensified, the risk of division facing the world is rising, and the international order is exploring a new balance in the process of change.
In some western countries, public governance is difficult to keep up with the changes of the times, and "American democracy" is facing institutional decline. In November 2018, the "yellow vest" incident exposed the French governance problem. On May 25, 2020, George Freud, an African-American man, was killed by white police, and then the "black life is life" movement broke out in the United States. On January 6, 2021, an unprecedented riot occurred on Capitol Hill, further aggravating the decline of "American democracy".
In regional relations, problems of multilateral mechanisms are repeated. On January 31, 2020, Britain officially "left the European Union", ending its 47-year membership in the European Union. The "Brexit" process, which lasted for several years, showed the serious tearing of British society, and became another evidence that western democracy was caught in the institutional dilemma and governance crisis, which had a far-reaching impact on the world political and economic structure.
Challenges within countries are also projected into the field of international relations. In order to maintain hegemony, the United States has stepped up the game of big powers, which has brought great instability to the world. Five years ago, the Trump administration declared that "the United States has priority" and constantly "retired" to undermine the international order. In 2019, the United States unilaterally announced its withdrawal from Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the international arms control system was challenged. On September 27th, 2020, a military conflict broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), which made the geopolitical balance in the Caucasus and surrounding areas more fragile. On August 30, 2021, the US military hastily withdrew from Afghanistan, and the 20-year war in Afghanistan ended in American failure. With the emergence of various security crises and military conflicts, the return of geopolitical logic can be observed.
On August 31, 2021, Afghan Taliban personnel entered Kabul airport. The day before, the US Central Command announced that the US military has completed the task of withdrawing from Afghanistan, and the US military operations in Afghanistan for nearly 20 years have officially ended. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Sevrahman Safi)
On February 24, 2022, Russia, which was constantly squeezed by NATO, launched a special military action against Ukraine, and Europe, America and Russia fell into a severe geopolitical conflict. The escalation of the Ukrainian crisis has completely changed the relationship between Russia and the West and triggered a major adjustment in the international security pattern.
The United States demarcated by ideology, built a "small courtyard and high wall", provoked "strategic competition" with China, and declared that it would "decouple" and "break the chain" with China.
The global governance deficit is increasing, and the risk of division and confrontation in the world is getting higher and higher, which makes UN Secretary-General Guterres deeply worried. How to "maintain peace and development in a divided world" has become the theme of many think tanks around the world in 2022.
Joschka Fischer, a former German deputy chancellor and foreign minister, recently wrote on the website of the world newspaper syndicate that "we are witnessing an unprecedented convergence of major and minor crises" and that "many of these crises are not only signs of decline, but also signs that a new world order is being born".
World economy: finding a way in the downturn and inflation
Since 2013, former US Treasury Secretary Summers has repeatedly stressed that the global economy has entered a "long-term stagnation". Since 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic has made the world economy more difficult. Low growth, high debt, great recession, high inflation, trade war, energy war and financial war … … The global economy is beset with difficulties.
According to United Nations data, the global economy will shrink by 4.3% in 2020 due to the epidemic. After a moderate recovery in 2021, by the end of 2022, the world economy is facing more severe challenges, the era of great inflation is coming, and some countries are once again in a serious recession.
In order to get rid of economic difficulties, some countries, such as the United States, waved protectionist sticks and provoked trade wars against major trading partners.
In recent years, international oil prices have fluctuated violently. Analysts believe that behind it is the fierce game of energy powers. In 2022, the Ukrainian crisis escalated and the global energy pattern was adjusted again. At the same time, in order to crack down on Russia, the United States and the West used finance as a weapon to remove the Russian ruble from the SWIFT system. The overbearing hegemony of dollar hegemony is once again exposed.
The epidemic has disrupted the global supply chain, and some countries have begun to step up the adjustment of the global industrial chain and supply chain layout on the grounds of "economic security". After the end of the cold war, the process of economic globalization, which achieved great development, met with obstacles, and the trend of anti-globalization strengthened.
The accumulated policy risks in the early stage eventually led to an inflation crisis. The report released by the International Monetary Fund in October 2022 predicted that the global inflation rate would soar from 4.7% in 2021 to 8.8% in 2022.
Global poverty has worsened. According to the United Nations Report on Sustainable Development Goals in 2022, in 2020, the number of people living in extreme poverty in the world will increase by 93 million. Under the influence of inflation and geopolitical conflicts, the global poverty and hunger problem will be more severe in the future.
As the largest economy in the world, the epidemic situation and inflation response policies of the United States have caused a huge spillover impact on the world. After the outbreak, the United States "released water" on a large scale in monetary policy, and at the same time vigorously stimulated fiscal policy, laying the groundwork for soaring inflation. In 2022, in order to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates, which led to the global dollar returning to the United States, the currencies of various countries depreciated seriously against the dollar, and many vulnerable countries faced debt crisis.
On December 14th, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.25% to 4.50%. Since 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 425 basis points. The picture shows Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attending a press conference in Washington on the same day. Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Jie photo
In recent years, the world economy has faced many challenges, but many progress and highlights can not be ignored.
On July 7, 2019, the special summit of the African Union announced the official launch of the construction of a free trade zone on the African continent, and a unified big market that will eventually cover 1.2 billion people is ready to emerge. This is an important milestone in the process of African integration and has far-reaching significance for Africa’s economic and social development.
On November 15th, 2020, 10 ASEAN countries and China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand formally signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), and established a free trade zone with the largest population, the largest membership structure and the greatest development potential in the world.
Over the past few years, China has maintained its position as the largest contributor to world economic growth and played a key role as an engine of growth. In 2020, China is the only major economy to achieve positive growth in the context of the deep recession of the world economy as a whole due to the epidemic.
From a long-term perspective, it is an important stage of deep adjustment of the world economic structure. According to Singaporean scholar Ma Kaishuo, the era when the West dominated the world is coming to an end. As Asian countries return to their historical position in the global economy, a different era has begun.
Scientific and technological development: brewing a breakthrough in constant accumulation
At present, great changes are brewing in human science and technology, and a new round of industrial revolution is ready to go. However, it is still unknown when, where and how scientific and technological innovation will lead human society to a new round of prosperity.
In recent years, global new scientific and technological achievements have emerged continuously. With the rapid development of virtual reality and mobile Internet, big data, cloud computing, blockchain and artificial intelligence are roaring.
While international public opinion is conceiving a beautiful new life in the "meta-universe", the rapidly developing virtual world may also facilitate phishing, identity theft and even espionage. How to establish the core security principles of cyberspace so that people can work, shop and play safely is still a new problem to be solved.
Artificial intelligence is another double-edged sword of science and technology. According to Liu He, a researcher at the Institute of Comparative Literature and Society of Columbia University, artificial intelligence not only brings unprecedented changes to people’s lives, but also poses multiple severe challenges to the existing knowledge order and spiritual life of human beings.
The world continues the upsurge of space exploration. In April 2019, with international cooperation, humans "saw" black holes for the first time. China, the United States, the United Arab Emirates and other countries have made breakthroughs in space exploration.
In the field of new energy, photovoltaic technology is in the ascendant, and mankind has stepped into the entrance of the new energy revolution. Some studies believe that once human beings realize the universal utilization of light energy, it will reshape the global economic order and even form a new form of commercial civilization.
At the same time, more and more natural disasters make people feel that the task of dealing with global climate change is more urgent. In November 2022, the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) was held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. "We are driving on the road to ‘ Climate hell ’ On the highway, but also step on the accelerator. " UN Secretary-General Guterres warned the world that "mankind has a choice: cooperate or perish. It is either a climate solidarity convention or a collective suicide convention. " From the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 to the deadline for the implementation of the Agreement in 2030, the time has passed halfway, and the road ahead is still difficult.
On November 20th, 2022, the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) closed in the coastal city of Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. The picture shows the closing ceremony. Xinhua News Agency reporter Yan Xiankai photo
Scientific and technological progress constantly redefines the framework of human society. Machines can save manpower and make people unemployed. Advanced algorithms can bring convenient services and put people’s personal information security at risk. How to do a good job of guidance and supervision, so that science and technology will always be a force for good, and test the governance wisdom of the governors.
Social culture: finding the anchor of centering in the anxiety chaos
Since 2020, COVID-19 epidemic, geo-conflicts, food and energy shortages and extreme weather events have brought disastrous effects to billions of people all over the world.
The United Nations Development Programme released the Human Development Report in September 2022 — — Uncertain Times, Unstable Life: Shaping Our Future in a Changing World points out that all kinds of uncertainties are accumulating and interacting at different levels, shaking the foundation of life in an unprecedented way. A wide range of challenges are causing great uncertainty. In 2020 and 2021, the global human development index declined for the first time for two consecutive years. More than 90% of countries and regions declined in 2020 or 2021, and more than 40% of them declined for two consecutive years. This shows that the impact of the current global crisis on many countries is still deepening.
In this context, populism, ultra-nationalism, xenophobia and racism … … All kinds of discrimination and prejudice are getting worse in some countries.
In America, people saw the "culture war". The tribalized and fragmented society makes Francis Fukuyama, an American political scholar, feel helpless, and the decision-makers seem powerless to reverse the severely torn society, rebuild warm communities and make organic social and cultural life the cornerstone of the country.
On November 15th, 2022, the global population reached 8 billion. What does this figure mean to human society? The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) believes that without a more radical change, the world may face further aggravation of poverty and injustice.
With the development of globalization for many years, almost everyone’s life in modern society has gone beyond the locality and is intertwined with the distant world. The "local culture" marked by geographical boundaries has lost its clear outline. Some people embrace "openness", while others sigh "chaos".
Today’s modern people spend a lot of time immersed in virtual worlds. The COVID-19 epidemic has further prompted people to relieve their emotions in cyberspace. Cyber violence and rage are worrying, and the interaction between the network and reality has made public governance more difficult.
This is a big era that is undergoing radical changes. In the past, change may be just a part of life. Now, change has become life itself. People look for certainty in anxiety and chaos and look forward to the power of stability.
中国应变：胸怀伟大目标稳健前行
“极不寻常、极不平凡。”在2022年12月举行的党外人士座谈会上，中共中央总书记最高领袖用这八个字形容过去的五年。
当前，世界百年未有之大变局加速演进，全球和平发展面临的不确定不稳定因素增多。中国放眼长远、胸怀天下、坚定信心，用人类命运共同体理念点亮灯火，照亮人类前行之路。作为负责任的大国，五年来，中国在努力做好自身建设的同时，开展奋发有为的积极外交，与时俱进地提出新理念、展开新行动，在世界上的影响力日增。
互利合作方面，“一带一路”倡议与全球发展倡议并举。对标落实好联合国2030年可持续发展议程，中国在世界范围内推动高质量发展合作。2018年，首届中国国际进口博览会开启。“连续五年如期举办进博会，让中国大市场成为世界大机遇，释放了中国全面扩大开放、加强国际合作的积极信号，展现了同世界分享市场机遇、推动世界经济复苏的中国担当。”中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所和虹桥国际经济论坛研究中心共同撰写的《世界开放报告2022》如是评价。
On November 6, 2022, the audience visited "Ten Years in China — — Exhibition of achievements in opening to the outside world. " Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhang Jiansong photo
Robert kuhn, chairman of the American Kuhn Foundation, believes that human development needs to be guaranteed by two major principles, one is stability, and the other is growth. Without stability and growth, nothing else can be said. The global development initiative and global security initiative put forward by China focus on safeguarding these two basic norms.
In terms of stable growth, as the second largest economy in the world, compared with other major countries in the world, China has provided the world with stable policy expectations. Today, China is not only the biggest contributor to the world economic growth, but also shows its role as a big country in more and more fields of international cooperation, providing the world with more global public goods and making every effort for global development. China has fully implemented the G-20 debt relief initiative, and the total amount of debt relief is the largest among G-20 members, which has provided support for relevant developing countries to tide over the difficulties.
In terms of common security, on April 21, 2022, the Chairman of the Supreme Leader put forward the global security initiative for the first time at the opening ceremony of the annual meeting of Boao Forum for Asia. This initiative aims to make up for the deficit in world peace and security and achieve lasting peace and universal security.
In terms of pioneering and innovation, China in the new era is constantly promoting scientific and technological innovation, concept innovation and system innovation, and exploring new paths of global development. More and more developing countries are looking forward to seeking development experience from China.
The first China-Arab Summit held in December, 2022 once again showed the world that "treating each other as equals" and "mutual benefit" are China’s way to get along with the world.
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Under the background of "stormy international environment and arduous domestic reform, development and stability tasks", the stability of China and the rule of China are hard-won. China is using new ideas and practical actions to prove that this super-large-scale country is a force to promote world peace and progress and a trustworthy and cooperative partner.
Pursuing great dreams is destined to go through thick and thin.
In this wide-ranging and changing world, in this confused and hopeful era, we still believe that the world will eventually move towards the light.
